You guys haven't factored in the Annies, which are like the Golden Globes for this category. The Best Animated Feature category is voted on only by animation professionals, and if I'm not mistaking, they overlap with the Annie voting body. That would mean that the Annies Best Picture category would predict the animated feature nominees.
This year, the Annies chose:
Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence
The Incredibles
Shrek 2
The Spongebob Squarepants Movie
If you recall, The Polar Express was all but shunned by the Annies, which I think is a bad sign for it. No animated film has even been nominated for the Oscar without getting the Annie nomination first, for the exception of Monster's Inc. which wasn't eligible until the following year, when it eventually DID place. I think the Academy will go the way of the high art Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence. They've already proven an affinity for anime in the form of Spirited Away, which came from behind with no pre-cursor Oscar support and basically its box-office was non-existent. It eventually won. At least Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence has a cult following among animators to work with. Hmm...Something to think about.
My final predictions:
Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence
The Incredibles - WINNER!
Shrek 2
For full predictions in every category, visit the off-topic section of ultimatedisney.com.
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