2014 Oscar Talk

[ShyViolet]

Interesting:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/?post_type ... ag&p=19330

[Randall]

The Wind Rises has picked up Disney as distributor. They haven't said when they plan to release it, though.

[EricJ]

Interesting:
http://www.awardscircuit.com/?post_type ... ag&p=19330

Plus, there's the Apology factor, which could work very strongly in Disney's favor:
A lot of voters have likely just NOW gotten around to watching Wreck-It Ralph when it was released on disk two weeks after last year's awards--those who failed to watch their screeners, or get out to the theaters in November while the initial surprise buzz was good--and may be reconsidering their brilliant idea to vote for Brave since it was "probably" the best of the five for being Pixar.

(And yes, "What were we thinking?" next-year after-the-fact Apology votes do happen:
Chicago. Return of the King. Frozen, the next big-scale movie to come out of WDFA after Ralph.)

[Bill1978]

What was Chicago an apology for? Was that Moulin Rouge?

[Ben]

Apart from working John Lasseter's brain in between sitting in on most of Hollywood's closed door meetings, it does now seem that Eric can actually see the into future...

[EricJ]

A lot of voters have likely just NOW gotten around to watching Wreck-It Ralph when it was released on disk two weeks after last year's awards--those who failed to watch their screeners, or get out to the theaters in November while the initial surprise buzz was good--and may be reconsidering their brilliant idea to vote for Brave since it was "probably" the best of the five for being Pixar.

(And WHY, apart from busy schedules, did they not bother to get around to watching their screeners?
Maybe there was still too much distrust that Disney could get a worthy film going again. Maybe the surprise good word of mouth was too late in November, and had too much competition from must-see viewings of The Hobbit and Les Miserables Or, maybe Disney shouldn't have kept shoving Sonic the Hedgehog into the marketing when trying to attract mainstream adults...)

What was Chicago an apology for? Was that Moulin Rouge?

"Moulin Rouge will bring back the movie musical!"
(shows Hot Honey Rag) ...What, you mean like THIS?
(And how many voters for Return of the King had even watched "A Beautiful Mind" in the last few years, and wanted to go back and vote for Fellowship instead?)

Going back to the New Renaissance thread, don't know how many voters knew Disney was even MAKING Lasseter-era movies before Tangled, but if Frozen continues the string, all of a sudden, they'll get to that equivalent "Hey, maybe Mermaid wasn't just a lucky accident" point where they'll notice.

[Ben]

Once again, the logic eludes me...

Academy folks don't get to see all the screeners because of the sheer amount they receive. Imagine getting a DVD of EVERY nominated film featured at the Oscars and having to watch them all in what amounts to little over a month! That's just not enough time so certain titles get buried in favor of: those that voters saw and want to watch again, those that voters didn't see but have heard are frontrunner contenders, and those that simply get the voters' interest.

After all those it's pot luck and/or titles that the voters don't get to. And I've said it before, but this is why having the Best Animated Feature ghetto doesn't help animation: those films get left at the bottom of the pile ("hey, they're only cartoons, right?"). If the general voters see even just one of them it'll be the most popular/talked about. That's just how it works (Animated Short fares better since they can take in the films in one sitting, so they get watched).

But the main problem is the amount of films, the timescale to watch them and the amount that don't get seen. In that case, it's just like our Oscar ballots...the "obvious" candidates are picked. I do think there's a bit of "retro voting" (I don't agree it's an "apology"), but not for those reasons: it's not because they're making up for a past "mistake", it's because the next time around they're more careful to watch the kind of film that was proclaimed "robbed" at the last ceremony.

So Frozen may well make its way higher up the pile this year because people missed Tangled and Ralph and think maybe they should take a look at it over a Pixar sequel. And then maybe, because it's likely to be the only animation they get to see, and if they liked it, then it could get their vote.

But it's not a concious apology: it's just that missing the last chance has got them to pay more attention the next time around.

[ShyViolet]

Interesting article:

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/the-o ... 200820912/

[EricJ]

Interesting article:

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/the-o ... 200820912/

Every year, the mainstreams dominate, while the arthouse discovery gets ONE or two charity slots.
Nobody really expected Secret of Kells or Chico & Rita to take the award, but everyone felt better about themselves that it got nominated.

This year, nobody's likely to see The Wind Rises in a one-week qualifying arthouse run that even Disney isn't handling anymore, so there's that little problem of getting anyone to vote for it on anything besides reputation. But that's a lot more than "Madoka Magica: the Movie" has.
(And no, wait: Did the article actually mention "Free Birds" in a sentence? No, really? )

So, those expecting a "surprise" will likely be disappointed:
Frozen for the win, DM2 for the money, Croods for the Katzenberg-nagging (he won for Shrek 1, you know! ), MU because Pixar will always be nominated (look, Brave won and Cars 2 was nominated, tell me they're suddenly going to leave Pixar on the cold doorstep for an icky-ol'-sequel that was arguably better than either of those two), and Wind Rises for the art-sympathy vote.
And which one actually wins, we've been over so many times...

[Dacey]

And Eric knows all of that because Eric knows...everything, apparently.

Or maybe he doesn't, since he claims Cars 2 was nominated when it wasn't.

[Ben]

Or that The Wind Rises isn't being handled by Disney when its LA qualifying run is being presented by Touchstone Pictures...

[littevers1991]

I personally am the biggest fan of Ice Age series and i've watched each of them for several times and the continental drift was superb and loved it. Rest of the movies were also fine but i prefer Ice age.

[ShyViolet]

I really can't see Frozen not winning this year. If it gets passed over, major injustice.

[Dacey]

Problem is, this is the year of Miyazaki's (I know I misspelled that) final film, so...

[Randall]

Yes, <i>Frozen</i>'s only real competiion, from what I can see, would come from Miyazaki. (I'll cry if Pixar wins for <i>MU</i>.) I've had no chance to see <i>The Wind Rises</i>, but I'd still love to see <i>Frozen</i> win.