Will Disney buy DWA? No! Universal did!

[Ben]

Kind of what I've been saying above. JK and DWA's in a sticky situation now, no two ways about it.

[LotsoA113]

I'll say this; the next year looks to be one of DreamWorks more stable eras in a while. The Penguins of Madagascar won't break records, but it should hit about $150 million in the US and then make boatloads of cash overseas. That one should overall be one of the better recent performers for them. It was actually an ingenious move on their part to set Home on that March 27th date, since that's the same late March date where How To Train Your Dragon and The Croods opened, and then stuck around for all of April and into May. Clever, clever move.

B.O.O. could be a dud, especially since it's placed in between two Disney family features, but maybe the presence of Seth Rogen and Melissa McCarthy will get the film some attention. And Kung Fu Panda 3 should do great in a Christmas release date that has been very beneficial to several major family films.

Beyond that though, the likes of Boss Baby and Trolls just don't make 2016 look that appealing, which certainly spells trouble for the studio. Plus, it appears they'll release FOUR movies in 2017 which is just insane. Weird times ahead, but at least the next year will be a touch more stable for them.

[Ben]

Penguins will either be a moderate hit or just bomb completely (if that happens, look for DWA to be snapped up at bargain prices), but what DWA really needs is a $600m earner, which it won't be.

After that, well, even the analysts aren't expecting much from Home (wherever it opens, it's not going to have the legs of Croods and certainly not Dragon) and B.O.O. is widely being written off even at this early stage, which is crazy (and, perhaps, hence the dating, which can be used as an excuse to explain why it tanks).

Panda 3 is the only thing on the slate that looks like a home run, and yet as I've said before I'll be interested to see how much the TV series exposure has on reducing box-office, though it will still do very well, especially internationally. Is it another $600m+ hit, though? Possibly maybe perhaps...

2016 and 2017 look very shaky, and I would expect some titles to move or even be cancelled depending on what happens with DWA and whoever buys them (and someone will, when the price is right, either after Penguins or Home).

So I don't think the future or even the next year looks particularly stable for DWA, especially with the uncertainty for all its employees (except one), which isn't really the best way to generate a genial atmosphere that breeds creativity...

[James]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Penguins is going to surprise everyone. I'm going to predict $250-300 million. Not only are the penguins one of the bet parts of the Madagascar films, they are going to have a huge window with no competition. It comes out at the end of November, three weeks after Big Hero 6, and then there is no other major animated film until February. That's the entire Christmas holiday season they have to themselves.

After that though, yeah, they're in trouble.

[Ben]

Well, crazy as it sounds, $250m would be a disappointment (going by the $500m+ of Madagascar 3 and what DWA needs this film to do). $300-400m would be the moderate hit I think it could be if it doesn't bomb completely...but given that these are worldwide numbers we're talking, that's still not a big deal when they're easily spending two to two-fifty on making and marketing the thing.

As for Christmas, I'm thinking Penguins might be a first week movie for teens and those that love the characters, but the holidays will be all about families going back to Big Hero 6 if that turns out to be as good as hoped.

I really do think there's a LOT riding on Penguins this November...much more than is being alluded to by anything we've heard so far...

[LotsoA113]

The main problem Penguins faces is that there's a ton of family movies coming out over Christmas, including 20th Century Fox's own Night At The Museum 3. If I were to make an early box office prediction for it, I'd say $150 million in America. As for international revenue, if we were to apply the same dip from Shrek 4 to Puss In Boots to this scenario involving Madagascar 3 to Penguins, it'd make about $430 million. That'd result in $580 million, about the same as The Croods which should be great actually for the company....if it doesn't get crushed by all the movies opening at Christmas.

[James]

Oops sorry! I was talking domestic $250-300 million which would make it one of DWA's biggest hauls (before inflation).

[Dacey]

That would still make it bigger than any of the Madagascar films, which is something I don't see happening, honestly. Especially with not just Night at the Museum, but also Annie coming out.

What I don't see being a "threat" is Into the Woods, which for whatever reason I just can't get excited about at all. It just feels like Disney's answer to Les Miserables being such a big hit two years ago (they've even given it the same release date).

[Dan]

And there's also The Hobbit.

[LotsoA113]

Dacey: Totally agree with you on Into The Woods. I'm seriously surprised it's getting so much advance Oscar buzz (all deriving from Chicago affection and a Christmas release date), though that same date could give it some solid box office, just not on the level of Les Miserables, a film I adored.

[Ben]

Oh, I see (on Penguins) but, no, its just not going to do $300m domestic. Maybe internationally...?

[EricJ]

Dacey: Totally agree with you on Into The Woods. I'm seriously surprised it's getting so much advance Oscar buzz (all deriving from Chicago affection and a Christmas release date), though that same date could give it some solid box office, just not on the level of Les Miserables, a film I adored.

That's pretty much ALL the buzz it, or any musical set for a December opening, has going for it:
We all expect Chicago to happen again, right on the 5:15 schedule, any time a musical shows up in the Christmas slot, without remembering what it was actually like back then in 2002. Chicago was a mind-blower to those of us who hadn't seen a real musical back onscreen again done correctly (especially not counting the Loud Gay Karaoke musical we'd had a year before), while Les Miz was....good.
It was a unique situation on a good film, which likely frustrated those Oscar betters automatically expecting nomination sweeps for "Nine". Or, even "The Producers", or lord help us, "Phantom of the Opera".

As for DWA, I think we can expect that ANY (non-Dragons, and even then...) DWA movie is its Own Worst Enemy.

[Dacey]

Les Miserables, for me, remains one of the most frustrating movies of the last few years. I want to like it a lot more than I do, but the decision to record all of the songs live on set (with a piano playing music in a headpiece in the actors' ears) was a terrible one. And the whole thing is a rather unpleasant affair to get through (Master of the House aside). And I say all of this as someone who loves the musical.

The Producers, The Phantom of the Opera, that "gay musical"? All of them are leagues better, in my book.

And I'm ashamed to admit I've never seen Chicago...especially since it stars two of my favorite actresses. But, technically speaking, this means that the only Rob Marshall film I've ever seen that I liked was Memoirs of Geisha way back in 2005 (although I'm sure I'll enjoy Chicago whenever I finally see it).

With Into the Woods, Disney is taking an apparently very dark musical and marketing it to families....even though it's been reported they haven't made major changes to it. Granted, on paper at least, the cast seems incredible (I love Anna Kendrick, who is great in the super fun Pitch Perfect, which is something you should really check out if you haven't already). But nothing seems to be "clicking," from the effects to Meryl Streep's wig. So, for whatever reason, I don't see this one pleasing either fans of the source material or moms and dads who ignorantly think they're getting an Enchanted-style modern fairy tale. But maybe I'll be proven wrong?

[Dan]

A few major changes are being made to Into the Woods in comparison to how it originally plays that's already causing a big stink with fans of the play (check the thread over in the movies forum, although it does present spoilers). I actually haven't been seeing the film getting marketed all that much lately, which may prove detrimental to the film's possible success. Probably Disney haven't trouble figuring a way to market the film and perhaps not mention that they're fairy tale characters involved that they've used?

In addition to The Hobbit's final entry coming out in December, there's also Part I of the Hunger Games finale coming out that will likely maintain a lot of its box-office strength by the time Penguins comes out. And we're all definitely curious to see what strength Big Hero 6 sill have once it's released. As we've seen with how Amazing Spider-Man 2 ultimately performed following Captain America: The Winter Soldier and before X-Men: Days of Future Past, being sandwiched between major franchises, even if it is part one of itself, is not a good place to be in.

[EricJ]

And I'm ashamed to admit I've never seen Chicago...especially since it stars two of my favorite actresses. But, technically speaking, this means that the only Rob Marshall film I've ever seen that I liked was Memoirs of Geisha way back in 2005 (although I'm sure I'll enjoy Chicago whenever I finally see it). ?

Seriously, Chicago's good: It not only interprets the ideas of the original stage musical more effectively than the original stage musical did, the gimmick of having all the musical numbers be in and out of Renee Zellweger's fantasy imagination gets past the new generation's idea of "Like, why are they singing in public?" (They aren't, she's just imagining it.)
Unfortunately, the Weinsteins also believed in "the annual Chicago", and made Marshall remake the exact same film for "Nine", which didn't fit the material as well. The earlier film clicked.

As for Hobbit dominating the Christmas box office, I've heard fans say "Kewl, dragonbattles!" without having seen the trailer yet, so it won't be the flop it should be, but book fans are starting to mutiny diminishing returns against Jackson's increasing tendency to Make Crap Up, and go in the complete opposite direction of the book's tone. The Hobbit trilogy's been called the "SW Prequel Trilogy of the Tolkiens", and after getting about 30% actual book content in Desolation, I, for one, can only dread what overproduced fan-fiction his wild but increasingly limited imagination has in store for us this year.

As we've seen with how Amazing Spider-Man 2 ultimately performed following Captain America: The Winter Soldier and before X-Men: Days of Future Past, being sandwiched between major franchises, even if it is part one of itself, is not a good place to be in.

Especially, in ASM2's case, if you happen to stink.
Which, so far, doesn't seem to be a problem with BH6, or we'd certainly know about it by now.