Oscar Contest Archive

[Ben]

Such a close race this year! I know who I want to win, but I’ll try and come up with who's actually likely to win, although helpfully this year there’s quite a bit of overlap for me.

Good luck everyone!

[ohmahaaha]

Thank you for doing this again this year, James - always fun! Maybe this year I'll get a few more right!

[gaastra]

I didn't know a bunch of the nods and do awful every year but sure do have fun anyways. Thanks for doing this contest again.

[Bill1978]

Yay! The annual tradition of finding out how much I suck at predicting winners has returned. Super keen to see how terrible I go this year.

[Randall]

Proud to be a member of the Good Loser Club!

[Farerb]

Submitted my predictions. I'm so nervous.

[Ben]

First time?

[Farerb]

No, but I always lose

[Ben]

Aw, you missed the cue…

[Bill1978]

Well, I voted. And I took the lazy route and based it on who won at the guilds. Obviously not all categories have a guild, so I just threw caution to the wind for those ones. The one category that I let my heart decide was Best Original Song. I doubt she will win, but after what 14 noms? you never know when the Academy is gonna throw Dianne Warren a golden man - even if she is getting an honorary one this year.

[James]

You can now check out how your picks compare to the consensus picks of all players! Check out the last column in the results grid here: https://animatedviews.com/oscars/2023/results.php

The first number is how many of your picks in the 21 scored categories match the consensus, the second is how many of your picks in the 2 tie-breaker categories match.

Do your picks not match up with what everyone else thought? Don't worry too much. The consensus isn't always spot on. Here's how it fared against the actual results (in scored categories) in recent years:

2012 - 77%
2013 - 77%
2014 - 95%
2015 - 82%
2016 - 73%
2017 - 68%
2018 - 86%
2019 - 59%
2020 - 86%
2021 - 71%
2022 - 90%

[D82]

I've just downloaded my ballot and I've realized I made I mistake in the Best Picture category. I thought had I marked Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I selected All Quiet in the Western Front instead. I should've checked everything before submitting the form. I guess it's not possible to change it now, right?

[Randall]

Wow, look at Tami being the rebel! Only four of her picks match the consensus! I admire her individuality.

[Ben]

I've just downloaded my ballot and I've realized I made I mistake in the Best Picture category. I thought had I marked Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I selected All Quiet in the Western Front instead. I should've checked everything before submitting the form. I guess it's not possible to change it now, right?

Don’t worry…you might still be lucky!

[Ben]

Well now that the contest is locked and the picks are there for all to see, I thought it would be fun to open up my thinking as I made my final choices, mainly based on previous awards ceremonies this season and how sentiment seems to lean for a few people I’ve talked with. These are what I think will win, though a couple are what I *hope* will win, but I’ll point those out as we go…

As I’ve said before, this is one of the best years in, er, well, years, since there are so many close calls. So, going by the order James listed them on our ballot…


BEST PICTURE
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle Of Sadness
Women Talking

Everything Everywhere is the clear favorite based on its originality and what it achieves. No, not everyone got it, but among filmfolks — and it is them voting — it’s been a big hit. Maverick and Avatar get a lot of kudos, but they were exactly the films we knew we were going to get (and, as enjoyable as Maverick was even for non-fans of the original, like me, the last trench run was strangely underpowered and was basically a rerun of The Dam Busters and/or Star Wars). I’m somewhat glad to see reality fade the indulgent glow of Fabelmans and people waking from their "oh, it’s Spielberg doing his childhood, it’s automatically gold" to see that it’s actually a pretty redundant film. I don’t really see Women Talking, Sadness, Tar or, sadly, Elvis making any kind of upset here. Which leaves Banshees obviously getting a lot of (puzzling, in my view) love, and the real "threat" of All Quiet, though it deviates strangely from the book, doesn’t have the emotional impact of the 1930 version, and after a while gets a little (whisper it) tedious. Everything is just so different, and done on a minuscule budget, that I think it’s the clear winner.



BEST LEADING ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Obviously there’s a lot of love for "comeback kid" Brendan Fraser, but his film has been divisive. He’s the natural "threat" to Austin Butler who, despite for me never looking like The King until the very later moments, did totally inhabit that role, and did it largely without prosthetics. Farrell possibly has a chance, as does Nighy as a career cap, but when it comes to American voters this is Fraser's or Butler’s. I would not be surprised in the least if it goes to Fraser, but my edge *just* goes to Elvis, who I also felt was phenomenal.



BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

I think most glow on some of the early runners — Ana's Marilyn and Michelle Williams (who also played Marilyn a while back, and better I think) — has faded, and Andrea's ploy was always mostly about snagging a nomination, I think, so this is down to Cate and Michelle Yeoh. Blanchett might snag it, but I’ve also heard some people find her performance too showy, plus she’s won before and will likely have other chances. So it’s close but I’m personally going for Yeoh, somewhat as a career nod, but also because what she does in Everything is incredible on a wide-ranging level. Don’t be surprised if it’s Cate's win, but I’ll go with my personal on this one and hope!



BEST DIRECTOR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle Of Sadness
Todd Field, Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Again, Spielberg was a shoe-in nominee before his film was even released, and he could be a surprise winner even though he may deal us another, more awards worthy movie in future. I don’t think Östlund or Fields are in the game, leaving McDonagh as a possible "threat" to Daniels, who I think are the clear takers for a win here. It *could* go Steve's way, over McDonagh I think, but with Everything being favorite for Picture it would be a shocker if Daniels didn’t win for their film too, so I’m also rooting for them.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Really interesting one here, but the other "comeback kid" — quite literally — story of Ke Huy Quan — Short Round himself! — just has such a nice fuzziness to it and would be an important diversity win for the Academy as well. Hirsch has a shot as a career cap, but people have said it’s a cameo at best, which leaves Henry and the two Banshees, of which Gleason *could* upset, but he’ll also have other shots. I’m going for, and personally hoping, for Short Round; what he does in Everything and the way he plays his character arc is just excellent.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees Of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once

There’s been a lot of hoo-hah over Bassett's nom, which could be the "threat" to a win for Jamie Lee Curtis, who I would also like to see win as a career cap and also again for how much she lost herself in that bizarre, unlike anything she’s ever done, role. Bassett will get more chances, but one feels this is Jamie Lee's time, especially among Academy voters. Condon could be an outsider, and Bassett could still be the "threat" as a diversity vote, but I’m hoping they rightfully reward Curtis here.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle Of Sadness

I have no idea why Fabelmans is here other than that auto-Spielberg glow, but don’t think it has a chance. Tár and Sadness are not contenders. I would love to see Everything take everything it is up for (all at once), but think that the also widely praised Banshees will gets its win here. Spielberg could still get a single nod, and don’t count Everything out completely, but I think Banshees will be noticed in this category.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet On The Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

With All Quiet also a Picture and International nomination, it would be a bit of a bump if it wasn’t acknowledged here, even if as I say it doesn’t actually adapt the book faithfully. But Maverick could be recognised — even though it’s the kind of film that will do better in the technicals and its screenplay was a hodge-podge of other films, including its own original — as a way to award its positivity in boosting the moviegoing experience. I don’t think Onion or Living are ranking particularly high, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it could also go Women's way as that’s got some people talking, no pun intended. I’d probably lean towards Maverick personally for the reasons given, but think it’ll ultimately go to All Quiet in lieu of Picture.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Pinocchio
Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Pinocchio has this in the bag, after winning *every* other Feature award leading up to this. I still need to see — maybe this weekend before the ceremony — but if you were going to bet any safe money, this would be it. Marcel and especially Puss could be upsets, but won’t be, Marcel being perhaps a little too obscure/"small"/"twee"/cute (you know what I’m getting at), although I’ve heard a *lot* of people saying how much they liked and were surprised by Puss. But this is del Toro's to lose.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty And The Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire Of Love
A House Made Of Splinters
Navalny

When in doubt, go for the one that has the most "cut through", and that’s Navalny. In a year with the continuing war in Ukraine, it also has all those kinds of connotations mixed up in it, which would be as closes to being political as the Academy gets. I’ve heard a bit about All That Breathes as well, but even outside of Oscar nominated titles, Navalny has a name, so I’m going with that.



BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
All Quiet On The Western Front, Germany
Argentina 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland

It won’t be all quiet for All Quiet, the other sure-fire winner this year in this category, somewhat making up for the probable Picture loss.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet On The Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans

Unlike quite a few people, I wasn’t really a fan of All Quiet's "BLLAAAMMM, BLLAAAMMM, BLAAAAMMMM…" choice of three big notes to punctuate the music of the film, but it’s been recognised by a lot of people. I haven’t heard Babylon, but *have* heard that this is the best thing about the film (apparently a main motif gets a lot of play throughout), so that may be in contention, and as much as I’d love John Williams to personally have a late career win, I just don’t think Fabelmans is going to nab it, though I might be wrong and he just might do it for the same sentimental reasons (and to give the film at least one nod). The others, including Everything for once, didn’t register enough for me, so it’s basically All Quiet or Fabelmans (and that’s for John Williams), and I think All Quiet will just edge it exactly because it *is* so different and not what anyone would expect for a film like this. Hopefully Johnny will get his last shot with Indy next year.



BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Lift Me Up from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This Is a Life from Everything Everywhere All At Once
Naatu Naatu from RRR
Applause from Tell It Like A Woman
Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

If anything, the songs registered even less for me this year than their film's scores! RRR would have been a big international contender if they had supported it more, so maybe it gets Song here as a token nod, but then Top Gun might do what it did last time (for Take My Breath Away) and make sure it gets recognition that way. It’s down to those two, and not an easy one to call. Hmmm…I’ll go with Maverick, but it could easily be Naatu Naatu. Tricky one!



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet On The Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire Of Light
Tár

Roger Deakins is up again for Empire Of Light, which looked beautiful but only in various spots. Bardo and Tár didn’t strike me as particularly jumping off the screen either, which leaves All Quiet and Elvis, which was big and flashy and I would love to see win. But All Quiet has a large number of noms for which it won’t get most of them, so the odds are more on for it to pick up a bunch of artistic ones. I’d like Elvis to take it personally, and it could do it, not least to give it to a female nominee (only the category’s third, so she’d be the first to win) in the year that Rust cinematographer Halyna Hutchins lost her life, but will go with All Quiet as a choice.



BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Wider moviegoers don’t really know what editing (which is my own personal game) is, and sadly it’s true for many filmmakers! Usually the film with the flashiest editing (as in the most cuts, because "cuts is editing", right?) wins, which would put this down to Elvis again, Maverick and Everything Everywhere. All three probably deserve it, although for me Maverick is the natural one because of all the obvious cuts, though Elvis blended its shots very nicely and made a lot of cuts seamless and invisible, which is kind of what you actually want to achieve in cutting. I was very pleased to see Bafta award Everything, since that film had to juggle narrative scenes, aspect ratio changes and the splitting of universes, so even though it could go Elvis or Maverick's way, I’m going to go with that.



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Another slam-dunk here, for Avatar, which likely won’t pick anything else up and has the Picture nomination backing up a win somewhere else, and this will be it, moreso bevause again it’s the showy "look at all the VFX" film, whereas all the others at least try to be more invisible in their showiness, portraying extensions to real on-set effects except for Wakanda, which often looked too over the top and fake. I don’t think anything else has a chance over Avatar here.



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way Of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Elvis could be the top choice here, although again Avatar is world building and don’t discount All Quiet picking up wins to account for not scoring Picture. Fabelmans and Babylon, which got noticed by some other organisations, are again mostly recreations or just period pieces, so look for the more flashy entrants to nab this, and Elvis is top of that pile. I think it will score well in both design awards as a way to reward the movie somehow.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Another tricky one, since it’s a pretty clear split between Elvis again, and possibly Wakanda Forever. All the others are largely reliant on known period pieces, everyday wear or embellishments, and the same can be said for Elvis, too, in a way, but the sheer *amount* of costuming is astounding, and they were not straight copies. Then again, Wakanda had to build its own world, albeit one based on previous movies, so this could be a way for that film to get a recognition, since it’s unlikely to win elsewhere. It’s the more "showy" costume film, but obviously so is Elvis. My heart says Elvis, but my brain says Wakanda. I think Wakanda might actually get it, but I’m going to go with Elvis, as I hope it wins here too.



BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet On The Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

With Brendan Fraser possibly losing to Elvis, which again also has an edge here, I think this is the obvious way to reward the film and nod towards that performance. For me, Austin Butler never looked like The King until the end when prosthetics aged him up, so it could be that the most obvious case of this, on Fraser, takes that honor. Then again, Batman's Penguin was almost unrecognisable, again down to prosthetics, and All Quiet's makeup was brutally realistic. Remember that Rick Baker's win for Ed Wood in 1994 lead to Martin Landau's win as Bela Lugosi, so we might just get another pairing here, but I think Butler has too much appreciation for Elvis and The Whale didn’t get a Picture nomination or a tremendous amount of love otherwise, so I think it wins here for the most obvious makeup job.



BEST SOUND
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

The technicals are often again the most "obvious" since most people don’t really know what they’re looking or listening for. So LOUDNESS and soundtracks with *lots of sound* win the day, and since they combined sound editing and mixing it seems to be the track with the most obvious sound going on that wins. You don’t get much louder and obvious than the planes in Top Gun, so I think Maverick has this, even if Avatar probably had the most amount of work put into it. That said, All Quiet was anything but, and had big rumbling explosions, so that could be the "threat" here. Call it for All Quiet, though I’ll go for Maverick as I just feel the Academy will want to give it a bit more love than just a song nod.



BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year Of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It

I wasn’t ultimately a fan of the rather frustrating Boy/Mole/Fox/Horse, but it’s the one with the most cut through again, by way of Apple's aggressive marketing and a heavy presence on the BBC in the UK over Christmas by way of festive idents and a couple of "free" showings in full. Ostrich is the only other film to have achieved a bit of notice, but Boy And The Fox took the Bafta and Annie, so I think it's a dead cert again here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

Cut through again goes to Elephants, which has its Netflix exposure, although I’ve also heard things on How Do You Measure A Year, Martha Mitchell and Stranger At The Gate, which especially has been getting a lot of attention. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stranger gets it, but I’m going to stick with Elephants.



BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

Finally, sometimes you just have to go with a hunch, and here just the title of An Irish Goodbye seems to be something that might attract Academy voters who, like me, haven’t seen most, any or all of these films. Night Ride and Red Suitcase likewise have more "accessible" titles, but Goodbye also has the distinction of being the only English-language short, so has that going for it as well with the mainly American Academy.


And there’s my picks, analysis and reasons why I’m going for them. As always, some are personal choices for wins, and others (most, in fact) are what I think will actually win under the practical conditions of voting and how the Academy usually swings. Not all will be right, obviously, and especially where I’ve gone for a couple of my hopes over what may take the award, but where I’m wrong I hope I’ve made a good enough case for what will, or should, take their place. So let’s open the envelopes and see who the Oscar goes to…!

Good luck to the nominees and congratulations to the eventual winners! And, of course, good luck to everyone everywhere who entered here — see you tonight!!