Oscar Contest 2025

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by James » March 2nd, 2025, 2:45 am

Farerb wrote:
March 2nd, 2025, 12:59 am
I don't understand the last column - if I have "20 / 1" does it mean that I'm not going to win?
So what that last column does is it combines all the ballots in our contest and finds the most popular pick in every category and assumes that it is going to win. It then looks at your ballot and tells you what your score would be if that were true.

Go to that results page again and scroll all the way to the bottom. The last row in the "AV Consensus". If you move your mouse over each category in that row you can see what the most popular pick was. If all the picks in that row end up being right, your final score on Oscar night would be 20 picks right out of the 21 categories that count in our contest, and 1 right out of 2 on the tie-breaker categories. (in other words, you'd be very likely to win or come close to winning!)

That said, the top choice in each category in our contest probably will not be correct. So you can't count on it! But it is a fun talking point until we get the actual results!

(Check out the record book starting in 2012. The "consenus" score shows you how well the top picks in our contest did against the actual results. For example, in 2012 the top picks in the contest were 77.3% correct, but the actual winner of the contest got 81.8% of the picks right.)

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by Farerb » March 2nd, 2025, 2:58 am

Thank you :)

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by Ben » March 2nd, 2025, 7:09 am

Did you know that 87,3% of people are uninterested in statistics?

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by James » March 2nd, 2025, 11:28 pm

Congrats to our Oscar contest winners - cetrata, daveguth, keithw, nwa75, and stage3kidney - who each got a score of 85.7%! After applying the tie-breaker rules, stage3kidney wins the $100 gift card, though all will be listed in the record book as champions! If you played but didn't win, check out the results to see how you did.

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by Randall » March 2nd, 2025, 11:40 pm

My score suggests that I simply made random guesses... which would indeed be consistent with my methodology.

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by gaastra » March 3rd, 2025, 7:50 am

Heh went right down the bottom of list to find my name.

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by James » March 3rd, 2025, 11:01 am

Probably unintentionally funny stat from ABC News:

"Saldaña is the third Latina in Oscar history to win best supporting actress -- and the first to win the award for a role other than Anita in West Side Story."

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by Ben » March 3rd, 2025, 6:24 pm

Both musicals tho! :)

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by Randall » March 3rd, 2025, 7:56 pm

That's humorous.

It's what's been holding Latinas back: Not enough remakes of WSS!

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Re: Oscar Contest 2025

Post by ohmahaaha » March 4th, 2025, 5:50 pm

I did terribly, as usual (lol), but the thing I like about the Oscars is discovering something I was previously unaware of, or at least had escaped my "radar," in this case "Flow." I'm looking forward to seeing that.

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